Aaron Rodgers overtakes Patrick Mahomes as MVP favorite

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USA TODAY Sports

Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has said that winning a third MVP award would “definitely mean a lot.” He’s currently the betting favorite to experience the feeling.

Via PointsBet, Rodgers now represents a -295 proposition to win the award. (Bet $295 to win $100.) Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who had been the favorite ever since overtaking Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson, is now +250.

Others on the board are Bills quarterback Josh Allen (+1400), Titans running back Derrick Henry (+5000), Packers receiver Davante Adams (+5000), Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (+10000), and Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill (+10000).

With one week left in the regular season, there’s one potentially significant factor remaining. If the Packers secure the No. 1 seed in the NFC (they’ll do it with a win over the Bears), Rodgers’ case will become even stronger.

The problem with this specific wager, however, is that the award hinges on a flawed process. The Associated Press hands out its various award through the vote of only 50 people (including some who frankly shouldn’t have a vote), with only one vote to be cast (no first-, second-, or third-place options). With no real guidance (or any guidance) as to what the categories mean, it’s unclear how the voting will go.

If the Chiefs choose to play starters in a meaningless Week 17 game against the Chargers, Mahomes could finish with 5,000 passing yards. The Chiefs already have the top seed. And few would debate the question of whether Mahomes is currently the best player in the NFL.

But what’s the standard? Best player? (Mahomes.) Most valuable to the league? (Mahomes.) Most valuable to his team? (Rodgers.)

Rodgers has thrived with fewer weapons and a lesser defense. But in a lesser conference. Mahomes and the Chiefs have taken body blow after body blow with every team the Chiefs face treating the game as the ultimate measuring stick, and but for a 40-32 loss to the Raiders, the Chiefs keep winning and winning and winning.

Without Mahomes, 14-1 doesn’t happen. Then again, without Mahomes, every opponent wouldn’t treat a game against the Chiefs like the Super Bowl.

It’s quite a conundrum. Throw in the fact that some voters may “like” Mahomes more than Rodgers and/or may not care for the perception that Rodgers is politicking for the award (and/or complaining about not getting it in 2012 and 2016), Mahomes could get enough votes to make a difference. Or maybe they end up tying, with 25 each. Or 24.5 each (if someone splits his or her vote), and one random, goofball, look-at-me voter picking someone else.

There’s one more factor to consider. The award is announced the night before the Super Bowl. If the quarterback who doesn’t win it is playing in the Super Bowl, will the snub provide an extra boost of motivation? What if the Super Bowl features the Chiefs against the Packers?

Whoever gets it, remember this: No league MVP has won the Super Bowl since 1999. And every league MVP would trade in the award for that year’s Super Bowl ring.