Viktor
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- Mar 19, 2019
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2. Unlikely completions hurt before helping
Last week, we noted that the Cowboys connected for four of the 17 least-likely passes in Week 10.
On Sunday, the Broncos managed to hurt the Vikings with two of the nine least-likely catches of Week 11.
According to Next Gen Stats, Allen’s 48-yard pass to Courtland Sutton, during which Xavier Rhodes played solid coverage, had a completion probability of 23.3 percent that ranked sixth-most improbable in Week 11.
Sutton was on the passing end of another unlikely play when he heaved a throw to Tim Patrick for a gain of 38. The completion rate on that one was 23.8 percent (ninth-most improbable).
The Vikings also managed to make a couple of improbable catches. Cousins’ pass to Diggs that gained 44 in the third quarter had a completion likelihood of 27.9 percent (14th), and the 10-yard touchdown pass to Irv Smith, Jr., that quickly followed had a rate of 29.4 percent (16th).
3. Flipping the script
The Vikings repeatedly talk about the importance of double dipping, meaning scoring on the final possession of a first half and the first possession of a second half.
The setting was possible on Sunday, but Minnesota was unable to get points heading into the locker room. The Vikings were able to get a touchdown on the opening drive of the second half, however, and doing so began to flip the script.
After getting out-gained 217 to 47 in the first half and allowing an average of 5.86 yards per play while only averaging 2.04 yards per play, Minnesota out-gained Denver 274 to 177 in the second half. The Vikings averaged 7.83 yards per play, compared to 4.66 by the Broncos after the break.
Minnesota converted four of six third downs in the second half after going 1-for-6 in the game’s first 30 minutes and limited Denver to a 2-for-10 showing after halftime.
It’s also worth noting that the Vikings committed four penalties for 44 yards in the first half but were only flagged one time for five yards in the second half.