Staley Da Bear
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- Mar 16, 2019
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While this setup may trigger unfortunate memories of 2013 when a Week 17 loss to the Packers cost the Bears a playoff spot, the odds are looking better for the Bears than they have in weeks.
If the Bears beat the Packers, they will be in the playoffs no matter what.
If the Cardinals lose to the Los Angeles Rams, the Bears will be in the playoffs no matter what.
If both teams tie, the Bears will be in the playoffs no matter what, despite the fact that this scenario is so unlikely it barely merits mentioning.
Several publications have tracked playoff probabilities throughout the season. Here is what they are now saying about the Bears' postseason hopes:
ESPN - 72.9 percent chance of making the playoffs
ESPN's Football Power Index predicted before the season that the Bears would go 8-8 with a 41 percent of making the playoffs. As of Monday, the FPI gives the Bears about a three-in-four shot of making the playoffs, with a 13.6 percent chance of earning the sixth seed.
New York Times - 72 percent chance of making the playoffs
The national paper of record roughly agrees with ESPN's assessment. The landing page shows a graph of the percentage over the last five weeks, with the Bears at 38 percent coming out of their bye, bottoming out after losses to the Packers and Detroit Lions, then surging after the last two wins.
FiveThirtyEight - 73 percent chance of making the playoffs
The website built around statistical predictions lands in a similar place as the previous two publications. However, FiveThirtyEight has been a little more confident in the Bears' chances than its competitors. Before this weekend, the website gave the Bears a 57 percent chance of making the playoffs, while ESPN put the odds at 33.
Football Outsiders - 77.3 percent chance of making the playoffs
The website lives up to its name, bucking the trend and showing the most bullish prediction. The Bears' chances skyrocketed 41.5 points after the weekend's events. Football Outsiders also appears to be the most bullish on the Bears earning the sixth seed, at 16.4 percent. That climb would happen in the event of both a Bears and Cardinals victory, which would leave the Rams as the odd team out.