Blitz
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- Mar 20, 2019
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Russell Wilson wants his next contract by April 15. As reported earlier today, the “or else” isn’t a holdout or even a partial boycott of offseason workouts. So what’s his leverage to get a deal done by the start of the 2019 offseason program?
It’s simple. If he doesn’t get the long-term deal he wants by the time he wants it, he simply won’t do a long-term deal in 2019. Which will activate the franchise-tag launch sequence.
As previously mentioned, Wilson’s $25.286 million cap number for 2019 means that his franchise tender for 2020 would be $30.34 million. For 2021, it would move to $36.4 million. Then, in 2022, it would spike to $52.43 million. Thus, once Wilson plays out the current contract and opens the door to three years and $119.7 million ($39.72 million per year), the Seahawks will be in a much more difficult position than they are now.
It’s possible that Wilson’s “or else” goes beyond 2019, and that without a long-term deal by April 15 he simply won’t sign one until he get to the open market, which would happen in 2022 (unless the Seahawks pay $52.43 million for one more year) or 2023 (when the franchise tag arguably wouldn’t be available a fourth time, and even if it were it would likely cost a whopping $74.49 million for one year).
We got to this point because Wilson saw Kirk Cousins, who is no Russell Wilson (sorry, Kirk), parlay the franchise tag into $44 million over two years from Washington, a path to free agency, and $84 million fully guaranteed over three years from the Vikings. If a mid-level quarterback (sorry, Kirk) can pull that off via a combination of circumstance and determination, what could Russell Wilson do?
There’s only one way to find out. And Wilson and the Seahawks may indeed find out, if the Seahawks don’t give Wilson whatever it is that he wants before April 15.
That’s where the two circles of the Venn diagram either will, or won’t, kiss. What does Wilson want now in exchange for his ability to make up to $136.7 million over the four years (that’s the sum of his $17 million salary for 2019 plus three franchise tags), followed by a shot at the open market? (If the Seahawks don’t apply the franchise tag in 2022, he’d made $83.74 million over three years, followed by a shot at the open market.) In turn, what will the Seahawks pay in order to avoid the unlocking of a series of increasingly gigantic one-year salaries and/or watching Wilson become an unrestricted free agent?
I’ve got a semi-informed idea as to what it will take to get it done, and I’ll explain it here later tonight. Or you can listen to the #PFTPM podcast (or PFTOT) from Wednesday, during which the key factor that may be (is) standing in the way of Wilson’s next long-term contract may be (is) explained.