You've Got Mail: Falcons Week

Big Red

Well-known member
Mar 16, 2019
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I do believe there is a trend for teams -- slowly -- to take greater risks, and it is because of analytics. The numbers say, in many situations where teams punt, statistically they are better off and/or have a better chance than not to convert on fourth down. Honestly, it wasn't that the Bengals went for it to me, it was the terrible play call. Joe Mixon might have been stuffed at the line, but a handoff to your best back has a better chance to work than a shotgun draw QB sneak. It doesn't have anything to do with the kicking game, in my opinion. It's the stats -- the ones that say in the long run, you are better off. Here's one simple way to look at it near the goal line -- if you twice go for it on fourth down inside the 5, for instance, you only have to make it once and you'll get seven points -- better than if you kick field goals twice. It's that kind of thinking that has definitely trended up.

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